Taiwan

Taiwan's Cross-Strait Relations: A Decade of Evolution and Challenges

By David Wong
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Published: 2026-02-14 17:05

This report delves into the evolving dynamics of cross-Strait relations between Taiwan and Mainland China over the past decade. Utilizing global news big data and machine learning, we explore the key events, sentiments, and implications for Taiwan's future.

Introduction

As Taiwan approaches a pivotal election year in 2024, the dynamics of its relationship with Mainland China remain a focal point of both domestic and international discourse. Over the last decade, cross-Strait relations have undergone significant transformations, influenced by political shifts, public sentiment, and external pressures. This report utilizes insights from a comprehensive analysis of global news big data, integrating findings from the GDELT project and machine learning techniques, to map the evolution of these relations from 2014 to 2023.

Historical Context

The relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China has been fraught with tension since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. However, the past decade has seen a notable shift in the rhetoric and actions of both sides. The election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 marked a turning point, as her administration adopted a more assertive stance on Taiwan's sovereignty, rejecting the 'One China' principle that had previously governed cross-Strait interactions.

Data Analysis and Findings

Using GDELT's extensive database, we analyzed news articles and reports related to Taiwan and Mainland China from 2014 to 2023. Our findings reveal a marked increase in negative sentiment towards Mainland China in Taiwanese media, particularly following key events such as the Hong Kong protests in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The sentiment analysis indicates that Taiwanese citizens are increasingly wary of Beijing's intentions, with many viewing the Chinese government as a threat to their democratic values and way of life.

Key Events Shaping Relations

Several key events have significantly influenced cross-Strait relations during this period:

  • 2016 Presidential Election: Tsai Ing-wen’s victory led to a freeze in formal communications with Beijing, setting the stage for a more confrontational approach.
  • Hong Kong Protests (2019): The pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong galvanized public opinion in Taiwan, leading to increased support for pro-independence sentiments.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic: Taiwan’s successful handling of the pandemic contrasted sharply with Beijing's initial response, further solidifying the island's separate identity.
  • Military Tensions: Increased military maneuvers by China around Taiwan have heightened fears of potential conflict, leading to greater calls for international support for Taiwan.

Public Sentiment and International Implications

The sentiment analysis indicates a growing divide in public opinion regarding cross-Strait relations. While a significant portion of the population supports maintaining the status quo, there is also a rising faction advocating for formal independence. This division is reflected in the political landscape, with upcoming elections likely to be influenced by these sentiments.

Internationally, Taiwan's situation has drawn increased attention from global powers, particularly the United States. The Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan, providing military support and engaging in diplomatic efforts to counterbalance China's assertiveness in the region.

Conclusion

As Taiwan navigates its complex relationship with Mainland China, the next few years will be crucial in determining the island's future. The evolution of cross-Strait relations is not only a matter of regional stability but also a significant factor in the broader geopolitical landscape. With the 2024 elections on the horizon, Taiwan stands at a crossroads, facing both challenges and opportunities in its quest for sovereignty and democratic integrity.